Why Pirelli's downforce simulations don’t tell the full story of F1’s 2026 pecking order

With three race weekends to go under the current regulations, the focus of Formula 1 teams has long since shifted to 2026. The performance of all power units remains a major question mark, and the same applies to the chassis side.

Although the initial response from technical directors – just as in 2022 – was that the rules were quite restrictive, Adrian Newey has said that upon closer inspection that might not be the case. It's reflected in some of the early predictions for next year’s cars. Figures submitted by teams vary in at least two areas. Brembo said there's considerable variance in the expected rear brake disc dimensions for next year, while Pirelli revealed that teams’ predicted downforce levels differ substantially.

What do these differences between teams really mean?

The tyre supplier receives the predicted downforce levels of all teams for the end of the following season. It gives an indication of how much load will be placed on the new tyres and provides Pirelli with a reference when developing both the construction and the compounds.

“That is our request, yes. All teams must give us a prediction of their expected loads for the end of next season,” Mario Isola explains during an exclusive interview with Motorsport.com.

The interesting part is that those initial predictions varied a lot for 2026, but according to Isola that doesn’t mean the field will be massively spread out. It mainly underlines how difficult it is to come up with accurate predictions early on.

“I don’t believe that those simulations are telling us what the competitive order for next year will be. The numbers are far from that to be honest. They are just simulations showing the expectations of the teams, not the real performance that we see on track,” he says.

Mario Isola, Director of Pirelli F1, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / LAT Images via Getty Images

Isola wants to tone down some of the recent reports around those simulations. “I’ve already read articles saying, ‘with this in mind we already know who will be fastest’. No, reality is completely different. Even if you have a higher load at the front or at the rear, that still doesn’t mean you will be quicker. That also depends on drag levels and on many other factors, so it's not that those simulations define the competitive order.”

Isola read some of the stories with great amusement: “So basically, I can already tell you who is going to be the winner next year! But unfortunately, it’s not like that, or maybe I should say: luckily, it’s not like that!”

Can Pirelli rely on simulations when developing the 2026 compounds?

While that unpredictability is interesting for fans, it makes Pirelli’s task more complicated. If the teams’ initial simulations vary so widely, which numbers should the Italian tyre supplier rely on?

“In the first part of the development, it was not a big issue because we targeted the integrity of the tyre based on the highest simulations,” Isola explains. “The difficult part of the job is when you're in the process of defining the compounds, because that also depends on the energy and load.”

When it comes to the tyre’s integrity, it’s a case of ‘better safe than sorry’. “It's difficult for teams to come with reliable simulations, but we need those numbers. We cannot start with a tyre that is okay for loads at the beginning of the season, but not for the end of the season. In that case we have to increase the tyre pressure by a huge amount, because we need to support the construction. We prefer to design a tyre that’s in line with the expectations for the end of the season.”

Pirelli expects that the teams’ figures will be much closer together in the next round of simulations. “That has happened in the past as well, for example when we introduced the 18-inch tyre. At that point, we have already homologated the tyres for 2026, but we can still use that information to make our compound selection for all races.”

F1 concept

Photo by: FIA

It's exactly why Pirelli wants to cover a wider range than before with the 2026 compounds, to have more freedom with the tyre choice per grand prix. “We started the development with the C3 as our baseline, as that one is in the middle of the range. We started to design a C3 with the same hardness as the current C3, and then moved to the others. We tried to enlarge the gaps with the other compounds.”

With those larger steps, Pirelli hopes to accommodate all possible scenarios. “If for any reason the cars are not as fast at the beginning of the season as predicted, then the range of compounds is probably a bit on the hard side. But in that scenario we can still select softer compounds for specific races.”

Read Also:

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Formula 1Pirelli plans C6 tyre changes for 2026 after Max Verstappen’s strong F1 criticism

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