Long-run analysis: Has Toyota really returned to form in WEC...

Thanks in part to Balance of Performance, which leaves the Toyota GR010 Hybrid in a far less compromised position than it has been for most of the season, but also because of the track characteristics of the Bahrain International Circuit — a venue that has always suited Toyota — the Japanese manufacturer looks competitive again.

Yet while Toyota rightfully enters the finale as a favourite, qualifying tells only half the story, as this analysis will show. Over the long runs, some cars that didn’t even make Hyperpole suddenly emerge near the top. Expect plenty of intrigue on Saturday.

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Methodology

For this analysis, we included all laps within a six-second window of each car’s best lap in each practice session. Outliers caused by qualifying simulations or softer compounds were excluded. The average of all remaining laps was then calculated.

Unfortunately, the official data doesn’t specify which tyre each car ran in practice. Most manufacturers, however, followed comparable run plans. Fuel loads are also unknown.

Due to the weekend schedule, the first and third free practice sessions took place at times that don’t reflect race conditions. Even so, teams used these daylight sessions to gather data for the opening phase of the race.

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The second session, held at Thursday night, was the only one in race-like conditions. However, it ended at 6:30pm local time, while the race is set to run until 10pm, so no data could be obtained by anyone for the closing stages when track temperatures will be at their lowest.

FP1: Toyota to the front

The opening session is always tricky to read, with sand on the track and little grip available at an unusual time. Based on our method, the long-run order for FP1 was as follows:

Position

Team / Car

Lap Time

Toyota #8

1:54.349

Toyota #7

1:54.511

Peugeot #93

1:54.668

Ferrari #51

1:54.678

Alpine #36

1:54.883

Porsche #5

1:54.923

Aston Martin #009

1:54.938

AF Corse Ferrari #83

1:54.945

Ferrari #50

1:55.000

Peugeot #94

1:55.008

Alpine #35

1:55.107

Porsche #6

1:55.138

Aston Martin #007

1:55.314

Cadillac #12

1:55.323

BMW #20

1:55.579

BMW #15

1:55.892

Proton Porsche #99

1:55.931

Cadillac #38

1:55.963

The table could almost have come from past seasons — except this time, it’s unusual for 2025. Toyota nailed everything in Bahrain: single-lap pace in qualifying and solid tyre life over a stint. The GR010 Hybrid remains one of the most tyre-friendly cars in the field.

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Peugeot’s #93 validated its strong qualifying showing. Under the current BoP, the 9X8 finally looks competitive, though it remains to be seen whether it can match Toyota in tyre management.

Porsche produced a small surprise with the fifth-best average time despite the 963 having, for the first time ever, the worst power-to-weight ratio of all Hypercars. At Aston Martin, the timesheets topping two fastest laps of car #009 were excluded from the analysis, as they were set on medium tyres while most others ran hards.

BMW’s M Hybrid V8s are typically slow burners — their long-run pace in practice tends to improve significantly in the race. This time, however, the gap was larger than expected, and WRT expressed dissatisfaction with the overall balance.

FP2: Ferrari makes its title intentions clear

The picture shifted in FP2, the only session held under the lights. Both factory Ferraris topped the long-run averages:

Position

Team / Car

Lap Time

Ferrari #50

1:53.910

Ferrari #51

1:53.990

Peugeot #93

1:54.081

Toyota #7

1:54.207

Toyota #8

1:54.212

Porsche #6

1:54.347

Aston Martin #007

1:54.394

Peugeot #94

1:54.488

Cadillac #12

1:54.645

Porsche #5

1:54.714

Cadillac #38

1:54.719

Alpine #35

1:54.875

Aston Martin #009

1:54.938

AF Corse Ferrari #83

1:54.957

Alpine #36

1:54.985

BMW #15

1:55.133

BMW #20

1:55.220

Ferrari set the tone once again, underlining that the 499P remains the fastest hypercar on outright pace before BoP. Peugeot’s #93 again finished third, while the sister car dropped toward the bottom of the top 10.

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Toyota stayed competitive but trailed the leading Ferrari by nearly three-tenths on average. Porsche surprised again — this time with the #6, which still has championship hopes despite starting from the back. Notably, Laurens Vanthoor sat out this session, while most other teams rotated all three drivers.

The Aston Martin Valkyries couldn’t fully translate their one-lap pace into the long runs but remain within striking distance. The Heart of Racing could well repeat its top-five Fuji result but a victory, which might be expected by some courtesy of its 1-2 in the first qualifying session, looks like a too long shot.

At the back, both BMWs and the #83 AF Corse Ferrari struggled. The latter’s long run was likely done on an alternative run on used tyres, with Phil Hanson not taking the wheel. AF Corse confirmed to Motorsport.com that there was no concern about race pace.

FP3: How much is Porsche’s pace really worth?

FP3 took place in daylight again and was interrupted twice, once for a red flag after Celia Martin’s crash and once for a Full Course Yellow caused by a drone incident. The long-run averages were:

Position

Team / Car

Lap Time

Porsche #6

1:53.795

Toyota #8

1:53.875

Porsche #5

1:54.115

Aston Martin #007

1:54.255

Ferrari #51

1:54.277

AF Corse Ferrari #83

1:54.327

Peugeot #93

1:54.327

Toyota #7

1:54.337

Peugeot #94

1:54.421

BMW #20

1:54.466

Cadillac #12

1:54.646

Alpine #36

1:54.685

Cadillac #38

1:55.211

Aston Martin #009

1:55.415

BMW #15

1:55.463

Alpine #35

1:55.767

Proton Porsche #99

1:55.880

Ferrari #50

1:56.298

Porsche emerged as the fastest car in this session. Toyota confirmed its strength in daytime conditions, while Ferrari remained in the mix. The private yellow 499P also reappeared near the top.

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It’s worth noting that numerous 1m58s lap times from the #007 Aston Martin had to be excluded because they fell outside the six-second window. As a result, that car probably appears slightly stronger than it really was in the session.

Peugeot wasn’t quite as sharp this time, while BMW managed to edge into a tightly bunched midfield that reached up to the third-placed Porsche. WRT, however, remained unsatisfied and plans set-up changes for the race. The slow time of the #50 Ferrari likely came on older tyres and is not representative.

Conclusion

Everything points to a head-to-head fight between Ferrari and Toyota at the front. Both teams benefit from a slightly more favourable BoP this weekend, while several rivals are notably worse off. Both also excel in tyre management.

"It looks pretty good for us. But Ferrari looks very strong on long runs too," Mike Conway told Motorsport.com.

So far, the data suggests Ferrari may have the edge under the floodlights — and the decisive half of the race will be run in darkness.

Porsche is a big unknown in this analysis. The 963 seems to cope far better with its disadvantageous BoP than many expected. Urs Kuratle, Porsche’s LMDh projecr head, sounded optimistic when speaking to Motorsport.com, although that was before Estre’s qualifying nightmare.

#6 Porsche Penske Motorsport Porsche 963: Kevin Estre, Laurens Vanthoor, Pascal Wherlein

Photo by: Shameem Fahath / Motorsport Network

"The sequence of free practice sessions was quite far from the race conditions we’ll face. But we’re well prepared, and our long-run pace looks good — we already saw that yesterday", said Kuratle.

Aston Martin appears stronger in the practice results than it really is over long runs, consistent with earlier trends this season. The Valkyrie tends to shine in qualifying but struggles to maintain pace over longer stints. Its tyre management is not yet on par with Toyota and Ferrari.

Peugeot looks like the dark horse in this race. The #93 has shown strong and consistent form, day and night. From the second row, anything is possible.

Among the LMDh cars, only Porsche seems to be truly competitive on average. BMW continues to struggle with its set-up, Alpine is struggling as well, and Cadillac suffers from the harshest BoP of its V-Series.R era.

The key to victory will be managing the left and rear tyres. The Bahrain International Circuit is the most punishing track on the calendar for degradation. Both tyre compounds will come into play, with some drivers identifying the crossover point as early as 4pm, only two hours into the race.

Saving a fresh set of tyres for a potential late safety car will also be crucial. That means teams must double-stint early, when the track is still scorching hot. And since no data exists for the cool night phase that decides the race, there’s an extra layer of unknowns heading into the finale.

Photos from Bahrain - Friday

Bahrain - Friday, in photos