Maga won’t die with Donald Trump – but JD Vance might

JD Vance is back doing what he does best – staying in the picture. Having kept a low profile in the run-up to the Iran conflict, a deputy who is famously averse to “forever wars” has found a new role: holding talks facilitated by Pakistan, with the aim of providing both Tehran and Washington with off-ramps to ensure that Operation Epic Fury does not end up an epic fail for the US.

“JD”, as his European friends know him, has also found time to flex his transatlantic muscles, stumping this week for Viktor Orban, Hungary’s autocratic leader, who is facing a strong challenge in Sunday’s elections from an apostate populist, Peter Magyar, who is running on an anti-corruption platform. For Vance, the support of Hungary is an example of what he calls the “moral cooperation” between the mighty US and a country of less than 10 million in central Europe. Christian values and social conservatism are the talking points. Underpinning it all is a shared distaste for Ukraine’s all-out quest for independence from Russia and the European Union’s support for that goal.

Vance has spent a lot of his time in office morphing from the domestic politician who wrote the memoir Hillbilly Elegy – a paean to the left-behind America he grew up in – to a new role as the ruthless truth-teller. On arrival at the Munich Security Conference a year ago, he told us in a packed hall that Europe needed to grasp its own defence needs, but he also ventured far further into a full-on cultural critique of Western Europe – singling out the UK – for stifling free speech in the name of political correctness and limiting abortion rights protests.

It has elevated him to the “voice of America” abroad, when the president is either preoccupied at home or seeking amplification of his Maga message overseas. Conveniently, it puts Vance in a strong position in a role that can be diffuse.

He is not in the inner Trump team – that was evident when he was left to mind the shop in Washington DC while the president monitored strikes on Venezuela from a situation room at Mar-a-Lago. Nor was he present when Trump hosted Israel’s PM Netanyahu at the White House on 11 February to give the go-ahead to Iran hostilities (conspicuously, Vance was in Azerbaijan). President Trump likes to divide and rule, partly to avoid his secretary of state, the ambitious Marco Rubio, gaining too great a profile in America’s international posture.

Both are candidates for the top job. But Vance must know well that only a handful of deputies have made it to the West Wing in the context of electoral succession, as opposed to a presidential death in office. The Trump penumbra is not a place where trust levels are high: some who know the inside dynamics think Vance is used now on tasks like the Pakistan talks because he can be disowned or downplayed if they fail, whereas Trump can take credit if they do lead to a viable end to the war.

On succession, the president prefers to flirt with the idea of remaining in office beyond his two-term limit. Practically, that is strewn with difficulties – and by this time next year, the shape of the Republican race should firm up. On average, candidates declare their intention to run a year and a half out from the election in November 2028.

Trump and Vance are similar in that both see themselves as movement leaders who have caught political flight on the wings of culture wars and grievances that cannot be easily dealt with by conventional political means.

But differences do remain – and the limits of foreign interventions are at their heart. It was telling that, in the Signal conversations accidentally leaked a year ago, discussing authorisation of attacks on Iran-backed Yemeni Houthi militants, Vance was the sole member of the group to sound cautious. “I am not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now,” he texted the defence and security inner circle. “There’s a further risk that we see a moderate to severe spike in oil prices.”

That now looks prophetic – a sober assessment of the risks of an “in and out” raid in the Gulf. Having served as a combat correspondent with the marines during the Iraq war, Vance has also argued that many working-class citizens have died in “forever wars”. For now, that can be fudged – but the topic will return to haunt Republicans when they need to assess more clearly the cost of the Iran mission and how far it worked out.

One previous member of the Trump transition team tells me that he sees the succession race as likely to pit the hawkish Rubio, who is keen to make Cuba the third target of the administration after Venezuela and Iran, and Vance against one another to vie for the Maga crown, with Trump himself making the leadership dispensation by giving or withholding support. “Like a giant Maga version of The Apprentice,” the source explains.

So, while the vice-president can support autocratic believers in traditional values on the Danube, read the riot act to European governments and hapless UK leaders, and revel in financially useful “tech bro” intimacy with Silicon Valley power-brokers, Vance is a man with a plan for advancement, which can be undone at the whim of a contrarian boss. He has a long year of Trump’s dominance ahead before any succession race can even begin. And amid the uncertain camaraderie and switching loyalties of Trumpworld, that can feel like a very long time indeed.

Anne McElvoy is executive editor at Politico, and co-host of the podcast ‘Politics at Sam and Anne’s’