Europe has just unveiled its new anti-Trump weapon: Canada

Just as night follows day, Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney’s rapturous reception at the European Parliament meant a Trump tirade felt inevitable.

The US president told reporters on Wednesday night, after EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen opened the door to a closer partnership with the more like-minded ally across the Atlantic, that he would impose “very serious tariffs” on Europe “or stop trading” if he deemed Canada’s associate membership in the EU “hostile” to American interests.

Von der Leyen anticipated the US’s response. She said that the partnership was not to be interpreted as “against anyone else“. But that did little to hide a broader shift: the making of a new Western alliance – one minus the US – where countries not only cooperate more on defence and slowly reduce dependencies on the US, but also undertake deeper integration of their economies.

Yet, Canada’s elevation to associate member status has left some in the UK feeling miffed. While the UK is still struggling to reset ties, how could Canada walk away with a deal so easily?

For months, the UK has been entangled in negotiations over standards for agricultural exports and a youth mobility programme, while Canada appears to have stolen a march and secured an assurance of a special relationship.

“We have the same views on Trump,” a senior EU diplomat told me, “and no baggage”. There are many other reasons smoother sailing with Canada is useful to the bloc: to hedge against the US, but also against Russia and China.

The Great White North is also strategically placed across the Arctic from Russia. A stronger pact with Canada allows the EU to counter the Russian threat and a growing Chinese presence in the Arctic, while also pushing back against Trump’s threat to annex Greenland.

Canada is also rich in critical minerals and rare earths desperately needed for many modern industries but dominated by Beijing. Joint investments in extracting and processing Canada’s resources would be mutually beneficial over time.

More importantly, from the EU’s perspective, expanding relations with Canada is simply easier than dealing with the British. It is expanding ties with a country that has not spent the past decade leaving the bloc – and then dilly-dallying over how much it wants back in. When I asked whether Britain could get a similar deal, a diplomat responded with a familiar refrain: “But they decided to leave”.

There appears to be more openness to dealing with Canada than the UK, partly because of the lingering pain of separation inflicted by Brexit, but also due to a secret craving in some member states to punish the UK.

What’s more, there is a feeling that the UK is driving a hard bargain – trying to regain some benefits of single-market access without accepting the full obligations of membership. “They want a reset, but they want us to pay for the reset,” the diplomat added. “If they want in, they need to learn to accept the rules.”

The terms of an EU-Canada deal are unclear – no existing framework supports associate membership. But there is a certainty of direction. “We agree with the ambition” entailed in the concept of associate membership for Canada; “the wording can be reframed,” a diplomat I spoke to added. Canada is also targeting a limited and more vague arrangement “to create a common prosperity and economic security space.” Carney has said he seeks a “unique alliance” and not membership.

“We will create a tech alliance. We will integrate defence industrial bases. We will make the Arctic a flagship joint project,” Von der Leyen said, outlining some of the initiatives.

A similar model could presumably also be applied to the UK. It can be an opportunity. Canada’s associate membership, or whatever it is called in the end, could serve as a blueprint.

The diplomat later insisted the UK is “not being discriminated against”, but it needs to decide what kind of cooperation it wants and what it is ready to give in return.

Canada is first, but Britain can be the second associate member – if it can only decide what it wants and clearly ask for it.

“I think it is a political issue, and [Andy] Burnham does not have the popular support to push through any deal with the EU,” the diplomat added. Whisper it quietly, but Keir Starmer might have had more luck.

Trump has taken notice of Canada’s growing ties and was clearly rattled by the cheer and thrill on display in Europe, as countries until recently in Washington’s sphere of influence appear to be breaking free and depending more on each other.

Stronger ties and a deeper alliance between the EU and the UK are necessary to tackle challenges much bigger than internal squabbles. But first, the hurt must heal and clarity must descend on where the UK sees itself in a changing world.