Reform UK’s support is more than a ‘protest’ vote, research suggests

Support for Reform UK is not simply a “protest” vote and is driven more by ideology than dissatisfaction with the state of the UK, a major survey has suggested.

Reform voters are most distinguished by their attitudes towards cultural issues, such as migration and trans rights, the British Social Attitudes (BSA) survey found.

Leading polling expert and BSA co-author Sir John Curtice described Reform supporters as “deeply ideological” and having “a level of emotional attachment that neither Labour nor the Conservatives have managed to inspire in voters for decades”.

And although there is possibly a “ceiling” on how many votes Nigel Farage’s party could receive, it is also potentially high enough to win a general election, Sir John added.

Reform has overtaken Labour in the polls, in part by having the Conservative Party “for breakfast, lunch and dinner”, he told a briefing on the findings, but added that the party “is unlikely to rise above” the 32 per cent it recorded in polls earlier this year.

While in previous years that level of support would not have been enough to win a general election, “because of our fragmentation of our politics more broadly, it is potentially a winning number,” he said.

The BSA survey did find that Reform supporters were more dissatisfied with the state of the country, and their own personal circumstances, than other voters.

In total, 60 per cent were “very dissatisfied” with the NHS, compared to 51 per cent of the general public, while 27 per cent said they were “struggling” on their current household income – five points more.

But they stood out more on cultural issues, with three out of four (75 per cent) saying migrants undermined Britain’s culture, compared to 35 per cent of the public.

And 88 per cent said equal opportunities for transgender people had gone too far, compared to 48 per cent for the general public, while 78 per cent said benefits for the unemployed were too high, compared to 60 per cent.

Sir John said the roots of the party’s support lay in the vote to leave the EU in 2016, describing this as “motivated by cultural questions of national identity, immigration, and pride in British history”.

He added: “Reform has effectively absorbed the coalition of voters that voted in 2019 for Boris Johnson to ‘get Brexit done’.

“The party’s future prospects do not simply rest on whether the economy and the health service are turned around and whether by the time of the next election voters become more satisfied with how they are being governed.

“They also rest heavily on whether it can continue to persuade Britain’s more socially conservative voters that it best represents their views.”

The BSA survey, carried out annually since 1983 by the National Centre for Social Research, surveyed 4,656 people across the UK.

The most recent version took place between August and October 2025.